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KANSAS CITY Tony Gonzalez Jersey , Mo. (AP) — The Kansas City Chiefs didn’t draft Patrick Mahomes merely to make the playoffs.Matt Cassel accomplished that, and quarterbacks Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac, Trent Green and Alex Smith went one better by making it to the divisional round. Smith even won a wild-card game, the first playoff victory by the long-suffering Chiefs since Joe Montana led them to the AFC title game in the 1993 season.No, the Chiefs didn’t trade up to select Mahomes just to make the playoffs.They did it to win in the playoffs.Now, Mahomes gets his first chance when the first-year starter leads the AFC West champions against the Colts — their longtime playoff nemesis — on Saturday at Arrowhead Stadium.Win and the young All-Pro quarterback has the Chiefs one game away from playing in the Super Bowl, lose and Mahomes has to wait a full year to get another crack at wiping away the stink of all those playoff failures.“A playoff run in general would mean a ton to everyone in this community, including us. I know the history,” Mahomes said, “but at the same time, we are a different generation.”That may be true Derrick Thomas Jersey , but he was on the sideline last season for the latest postseason letdown.Mahomes was given his freshman season to learn the ropes under Smith, who ended a streak of eight straight playoff defeats by beating Houston in the wild-card round in January 2016. But they lost the following week at New England to end their playoff run, then lost at home to the Steelers in the divisional round in 2017 and blew a big lead against the Titans in the wild-card round a year ago.Three defeats after that rarest of playoff wins.The sting has been even more brutal at home, where the Colts have won just as many playoff games as the Chiefs (two apiece) over the years. Both of the Chiefs’ wins were in the wild-card round.They’ve never won a home playoff game in the divisional round or beyond.Yet if there’s any reason to believe that stretch of futility will end Saturday, it just may be the optimistic kid with the big arm and curly Mohawk. Bono, Grbac and the rest never put up the kind of numbers that Mahomes has this season, nor did they engender the same kind of confidence in their teams.Mahomes exudes poise. And the rest of the Chiefs can feel it.“It’s the way he plays,” Chiefs center Mitch Morse said recently. “Not only his talent, which is uncanny, but the way he prepares, the way he conducts himself in the huddle, and then the guy has got a swagger about him that’s infectious.”There is no denying this is a new experience Christian Okoye Jersey , though. Mahomes only played in one bowl game in three seasons at Texas Tech, much less an NFL playoff game with the entire football world watching.“So far I haven’t seen anything that’s too big for Pat. I’m not even worried about that,” coach Andy Reid said Monday, just before the Chiefs resumed practicing following a well-earned week off.“He’s going to get himself ready, just like he does every week, to play against a good football team,” Reid said. “But I don’t think he’s wired the other way. I’m not predicting anything, I’m just telling you, matter of fact, how he’s wired, how he goes about his business.”That doesn’t mean Reid hasn’t pulled him aside for a few extra chats.“Everything is a little faster in the playoffs. That’s how things go,” Reid said. “At the same time Marcus Allen Jersey , he has to be himself and continue to lead and play like he has been doing. I don’t think he will have a problem with that. I think he understands that. He is wired the right way to handle all of it.”Mahomes said he’s chatted with Smith about his postseason experience, and he’s soaked up what he can from the veterans in his locker room. Defensive back Ron Parker, linebacker Justin Houston and fullback Anthony Sherman are among those who have been part of several postseason letdowns.As they take the field with Mahomes on Saturday, they have a chance to scribble over that history.“I mean, we are definitely ready. We know what it’s going to take,” Mahomes said. “It’s going to take a full effort from everyone, every single day, to the game and hopefully on. We know that you have to capitalize on every single play. You can’t let one play get you down for the next. The next play is the most important play. We are excited we get the chance to do that.” Since Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes sustained a dislocated kneecap during the team’s 30-6 victory over the Denver Broncos on Thursday night — which will keep the league’s reigning MVP off the field for at last two weeks, and perhaps as many as five — perceptions about the Chiefs in 2019 have changed dramatically.Among Chiefs fans, confidence in the team had already taken a severe hit after consecutive home losses to the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans.After being as high as 98% during Week 2 and Week 3, SBNation’s weekly FanPulse survey showed fan confidence in the team had dropped to 37% before Thursday night’s game.But with a significant injury to the player who is clearly the face of the franchise, national perceptions about the Chiefs have also changed — as indicated by a tweet from friend-of-the-site Matt Derrick of Chiefs Digest on Sunday night.Here’s the usual reminder about betting odds: they don’t tell you which team is most likely to win a game Larry Johnson Jersey , but rather which team the betting public thinks is more likely to win the game.The whole purpose of betting odds is to get the same amount of money bet on both teams; when that occurs, the house is guaranteed to make a profit.So expert bookmakers set the initial line to attract more money to be bet for the team less likely to win.Then, as bets are placed, the betting line moves one way or another — eventually reaching a point of equilibrium that represents the betting public’s opinion about the game.As Derrick noted, Mahomes’ injury caused one bookmaker to install the Green Bay Packers as initial three-point favorites in their road game against the Chiefs in this week’s edition ofSunday Night Football, saying that if Mahomes were under center, the Chiefs would have been favored by five.That’s consistent with the way other oddsmakers see the upcoming game.In an article published Friday morning, SportsLine.com writer Matt Severance said the difference between the Chiefs with Mahomes and the Chiefs without Mahomes was nine points.At the time, it was unknown whether Mahomes would return before the end of the season.Severance said that if he didn’t, it would be bad news for the team’s prospects.But is that an accurate representation of Mahomes’ effect on the team?This season, the stats geeks at FiveThirtyEight.com made an experimental change to their Elo model of rating NFL teams, which calculates the probabilities each team will win every game in the NFL season.The change made this season is meant to account for the quality of the starting quarterback for each team.Unsurprisingly Joe Montana Jersey , Mahomes has the highest added value of any quarterback in the league; his backup Matt Moore has a value pretty close to average.When accounting for Moore starting on Sunday night against the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers, the Elo model pretty much agrees with the bookmakers, saying Green Bay should be a 5.5 point favorite — compared to the Chiefs being favored by 2.5 under the traditional Elo model.In fact, the quarterback-adjusted model predicts the Chiefs would be 3-point underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings the following week and 1.5-point ‘dogs against the Tennessee Titans in Week 10.The Chiefs, however, would be favored by six points against the Los Angeles Chargers in Mexico City.Based on the fact that difference in point spreads between the quarterback-adjusted and traditional Elo models steadily narrows to less than half a point by the time the Chargers game arrives in Week 11, it appears the FiveThirtyEight calculations are based on the expectation that Mahomes will return sometime before then.Still, it confirms what we already know: Patrick Mahomes’ presence on the field is a significant part of the Chiefs offense.While losses in these next three games are far from foregone conclusions, Chiefs victories will likely require above-expectation performances not only from Matt Moore, but from the Chiefs defense, too.